OptionsFormula

Interactive decision desk - Updated 2026-07-31

Does This Trade Have Positive Expectancy?

A trade idea is only positive expectancy if the assumptions survive pressure.

Modeled expectancy is not proof. It is a transparent estimate from probability, average win, average loss, costs, sample size, tail losses, and account risk. Small assumption errors can flip the sign.

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Modeled expectancy is not proof. It is a transparent estimate from probability, average win, average loss, costs, sample size, tail losses, and account risk. Small assumption errors can flip the sign.

Transparent model: scoring combines reward-to-risk, expected value, portfolio risk, liquidity, volatility/catalyst pressure, and data completeness. The output is educational, not individualized advice.
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What the tool evaluates

This site weighs the trade decision using visitor-entered assumptions. It highlights the strongest argument for action, the strongest argument against it, missing information, and practical steps that could improve the setup.

Plain-English limitation

The result is not a prediction. It cannot see live prices, order-book depth, broker rules, tax treatment, or your personal situation. It turns your assumptions into a disciplined review.

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Turn trade ideas into testable expectancy rules

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No hype, no promises of wins, and no pretending every setup works. The free group is built to help you make every trade a clear decision instead of a reaction.

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